Front page article in Tuesday's Wall Street Journal.
THE DECIDERS
White Men Hold Key for Democrats
Contest May Hinge
On Blue-Collar Vote;
Opening for McCain?
By JONATHAN KAUFMAN
February 19, 2008; Page A1
YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio -- In a Democratic presidential
nomination race that pits a black man against a woman, the victor may
well be determined by white men.
The working-class white men who toil in the steel mills and auto plants
here are part of a volatile cohort that has long helped steer the
nation's political course. Once, blue-collar males were the bedrock of
Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal coalition. They became "Reagan
Democrats," helping to propel Ronald Reagan into office in the 1980s.
Bill Clinton won many of them back to the Democratic Party in 1992. Two
years later they were "angry white males," resentful of affirmative
action and the women's movement, who helped Republicans capture
Congress.
Now this group of voters is set to help determine the Democratic
nominee, and the next occupant of the White House. Working-class white
men make up nearly one-quarter of the electorate, outnumbering
African-American and Hispanic voters combined. As the Democratic
primary race intensifies, some of these white men are finding it hard
to identify with the remaining two candidates, Sen. Hillary Rodham
Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama.
"It seems like someone else should be there," says Dan
Leihgeber, a smelter in a steel plant here, who is supporting Sen.
Clinton. "It's like there's someone missing." *
As the Democratic race moves toward primaries in
blue-collar strongholds -- today in Wisconsin, Ohio on March 4 and
Pennsylvania on April 22 -- the allegiance of blue-collar men is up for
grabs. While Sen. Clinton runs strongly among working-class women, she
and Sen. Obama are perceived equally favorably among working-class men,
according to a January Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. The two
candidates have seesawed among blue-collar men in the primaries: Sen.
Clinton won them in Georgia, Missouri and New York, while Sen. Obama
captured the working-class male vote in New Hampshire, California,
Maryland and Virginia.
Blue-collar men could also emerge as an important
swing constituency in November -- either backing the Democrats'
eventual nominee, or shifting to some degree toward Sen. John McCain,
the presumptive Republican nominee, whose war record and
straight-talking approach could make him appealing to many
working-class men.
Marc Dann, Ohio's Democratic attorney general, frets
about the reluctance of some of these blue-collar Democrats to embrace
either of his party's candidates. "I worry about [the appeal of]
McCain," says Mr. Dann, who lives in Youngstown. "It's not like
watching an episode of Archie Bunker -- but there are real issues" that
white male voters here have with Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama.
Working-class men are generally defined as those
without a college degree, including union members and workers with
service and technical jobs, typically making less than $50,000 a year.
They are especially crucial in Ohio, where they make up about 28% of
the vote, as well as other battleground states including Michigan
(about 27%), West Virginia (33%), Missouri (27%), Minnesota (27%),
Pennsylvania (27%), Wisconsin (29%) and Iowa (34%).
In Youngstown, many working-class men say they will
vote according to issues, especially economic ones including health
care, free trade and the loss of manufacturing jobs. But in
conversations in union halls, bars and factories, race and gender are
never far from the surface.
"I don't think the country is ready for a woman
president yet," says Duane Tkac, a burly vocational instructor at a
prison here and a member of the local branch of the International
Brotherhood of Teamsters union. "The country is in too much turmoil. I
don't think she can handle the pressure, the terrorists." He plans to
vote for Sen. Obama.
Don Pompelia, retired from the Air Force, supports
Sen. Clinton. "I'm hoping Hillary gets the nomination. But if she
doesn't, I'm not voting for that guy. I'm going Republican," he booms
as he picks up his morning coffee at McDonald's. "There are going to be
a lot of people crossing over to the Republicans because he's black."
Back Into the Fold
After decades in which Republicans often successfully
wooed blue-collar men, many Democrats see 2008 as a chance to bring
them back into the fold, motivated by the worsening economy and their
disaffection with President Bush. In the 2006 midterm election, union
members and other working-class men voted for Democratic candidates by
a margin of almost two to one, helping the Democrats win control of
Congress.
Youngstown has been battered over the past 30 years by
job losses and plant closings. Buoyed by unionized steel jobs that paid
as much as $20 an hour, the city once had one of the country's highest
per-capita incomes. But as companies have shuttered steel and auto
plants, outsourcing jobs to nonunion parts of the country and overseas,
the city's population has fallen by 50% since 1960, to about 80,000.
Few young people stay here; the average age at one
steel plant is 55. Families survive because women have poured into the
work force out of necessity, changing the dynamic within traditionally
conservative families where women used to stay at home.
'Poster Child'
"For a lot of blue-collar guys over 40, Hillary
Clinton is a poster child for everything about the women's movement
that they don't like -- their wife going back to work, their daughters
rebelling, the rise of women in the workplace," says Gerald Austin, an
Ohio political strategist.
Mr. Leihgeber, the steelworker, says he supports Sen.
Clinton for her experience and positions. He carries a book bag to work
every day with his lunch and a newspaper inside and a Clinton button
pinned to the outside. Some days, he says, he turns the bag around so
the Clinton button doesn't show; he says he doesn't like dealing with
his co-workers' derogatory comments. Mr. Leihgeber says he wouldn't be
heckled so much for an Obama pin.
"People don't want to speak out against Obama because
of the fear of being seen as racist," he says. "It's easier to say you
want to keep a woman barefoot and pregnant....You can call a woman
anything."
In national polls, white men overall have been more
favorable than white women toward Sen. Obama. In a survey done in
September by Pew Research, white men overall gave Sen. Obama more
positive ratings than did white women, in categories including whether
he was tough, smart, friendly and honest. In the same categories, white
males gave Sen. Clinton consistently lower marks than white women did.
For some women, that confirms that sexism runs deeper
than racism among many men. "My mother, who was the first woman lawyer
in a big D.C. firm, always said that blacks got in before women," says
Caryl Rivers, a professor at Boston University who supports Sen.
Clinton. "Then the white guys figured everything had gone to hell
anyway, so they might as well let the women in."
In Youngstown, Sen. Obama is seen through the prism of
the city's changing racial makeup. Over the years, as Youngstown has
become poorer, many whites have moved to surrounding towns and the
minority population has increased. The Youngstown area is now one of
the most segregated communities in the country, according to the 2000
U.S. Census.
Everyday racial tensions and animosity run high. A
white cook at a local bar says he won't bother voting in this election.
"What's the point," he says, rubbing his skin. "We're already a
minority." **
But for some white men here, Sen. Obama's appeal is
that he is different from many black leaders they have seen in the
past. "The guys I work with, they know Jesse Jackson and they know Al
Sharpton. They call them all sorts of terrible things," says Robert
Hagan, a locomotive engineer and a state representative, referring to
these politicians' sometimes-inflammatory rhetoric and focus on black
causes. "They don't talk about Obama like that."
Those here who dislike Sen. Obama tend to criticize
what they call his empty rhetoric, his lack of experience and the fear
that he would favor blacks and other minorities.
Many working-class men here say they are being lobbied
by their teenage and young adult children to vote for Sen. Obama. And
some of the area's newer businesses, such as its growing hospitals and
the privately run prison, break down some of the racial and gender
barriers found in the mills and auto plants that are still
overwhelmingly white and male.
At a Teamsters hall here, a dozen burly men in
gabardine jackets and baseball caps gather over coffee and overstuffed
donuts for a union meeting of prison workers. "There is a
misunderstanding that older white guys aren't going to vote for a black
man," says Jim Marcum, a job counselor at the prison. "That's not
true." Mr. Marcum says he voted for Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush.
This time he plans to vote for Sen. Obama. "He's a breath of fresh air."
Natalie Grant, a black woman who works with Mr. Marcum at the prison, walks in and grabs some coffee.
"You really voting for Obama?" she says.
"Yes," says Mr. Marcum.
Ms. Grant laughs. "I knew there was some brother in you," she says. Mr. Marcum smiles.
Three years ago, Youngstown elected its first
African-American mayor, Jay Williams, a 36-year-old with little
political experience who ran as an independent promising to unite the
city. Mr. Williams won with the heavy support of the city's black
community -- about 40% of the vote -- but also drew white votes from
working-class and college neighborhoods.
"A lot of people thought Youngstown was 20 or 30 years
away from this kind of change," says Mr. Williams, who has endorsed
Sen. Obama.
Women, too, have made inroads in local politics. In
1994, there were no women elected at the county level, where real power
lies. Today, women serve as county commissioner and treasurer, and hold
several elected judicial seats.
"We deal with women at work," says John Lesicko, a
teamster official. "We deal with HR people. She might be a" -- he
raises his hands to form imaginary quote marks and silently mouths a
slur -- "but we deal with her."
Leaning Toward Clinton
Across town, 14 steelworkers brought together to talk
about the election say they predominantly supported Sen. John Edwards
before he dropped out of the race. Now 13 of them say they are leaning
toward Sen. Clinton. They praise her experience and toughness in
withstanding the Monica Lewinsky scandal. Former President Bill Clinton
remains enormously popular here, with many blue-collar men saying that
they like the fact that he would be in the White House as well.
"I think she has the right person in the bedroom with her," says Joe Marion, who works at the local prison.
Betty Ingramn doesn't buy it. The lone
African-American in the room full of steelworkers, she works as a
secretary in the steel mill and is the head of the clerical workers
union.
"It's a race thing," she says of her colleagues'
support for Sen. Clinton. "They can't handle it, an African-American
being over them." As an African-American union official, Ms. Ingramn
says she has battled constantly to be included in meetings and
decisions.
Both Sen. Clinton's and Sen. Obama's campaigns say
race and gender shouldn't be a consideration, and that they are
targeting blue-collar voters with appeals to economic issues that hit
working-class families.
"Some may call this the 'rust belt,' but that's not
what I see," Sen. Clinton said in a visit to the General Motors plant
here last week. "I see some of the hardest workers in the world. I see
great universities and strong communities. I see a 21st-century
manufacturing belt. An innovation belt. An opportunity belt."
Sen. Obama, in a visit to a GM plant in Wisconsin,
similarly laid out plans to help workers and create jobs. "I won't
stand here and tell you that we can -- or should -- stop free trade. We
can't stop every job from going overseas," he said. "But I also won't
stand here and accept an America where we do nothing to help American
workers who have lost jobs and opportunities because of these trade
agreements."
The real test will come in November.
"I think if we nominate one of these two, we are
talking about McCain as president," says Bob Rodkey, a firefighter who
doesn't like either candidate but plans to vote for Sen. Clinton in the
primary. "I talk to a lot of my Democratic friends and they are going
to cross over in November or not vote at all. We don't have a viable
candidate. Neither of them is one of us."
Mr. Rodkey says he will vote for a Democrat in the
fall. He plans to urge his friends to do the same. "Hopefully they will
listen to the message, and not who's delivering it," he says.
* Somebody is missing? Gee, do you mean the white guy(s) who pretty much ran the world for the last 500+ years? That guy? Yeah, it's a real bummer he might have to share the power.
** You are a minority? You mean like the half of the U.S. population that didn't get the right to vote until 1920? Or the minority that required three constitutional amendments, plus another hundred years of denial of their rights, before they gained free access to the polls? You mean that kind of minority? Yeah, right, bro.
*** Not one of you? What, we are not all human? We are not all Americans?
Sheesh, some people make me so mad I just have to laugh.